Empoli 1-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Empoli take on AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani plays host to Empoli versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Monday 12 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 2 for AS Roma and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 2–4 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 65% versus AS Roma 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 51% | AS Roma 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.21 xG and AS Roma 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.855 / defence 1.038 | AS Roma attack 0.967 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.074. Data: 43 Empoli games / 43 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 35% | Draw 36% | AS Roma 29%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | AS Roma 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 80% | AS Roma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 35% | Draw 36% | AS Roma 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Empoli 1.21 / AS Roma 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.855 / def 1.038 | AS Roma attack 0.967 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.08
AS Roma xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs AS Roma kick off?
Empoli vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Empoli 1 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Empoli vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs AS Roma part of?
Empoli vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 35% chance of winning, AS Roma a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Empoli and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Empoli and AS Roma in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Empoli's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.97x) against Empoli's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.83
36%
2.79
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.29
1.08
AS Roma xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Empoli and 1.08 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli's recent record stands at 10W 15D 18L from 43 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 12L across 43 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 4W 7D 10L from 21 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 8W 4D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.51 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 21W 10D 12L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.90 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Empoli or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, AS Roma in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 7-0 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
0
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, AS Roma have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Empoli 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Empoli, 57% for AS Roma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Empoli) and 52% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Empoli's games and 57% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Empoli's matches and 52% of AS Roma's.
Do Empoli and AS Roma tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Roma defy the odds to beat Empoli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Empoli 1-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.21 xG and AS Roma 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against AS Roma attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 35% | Draw 36% | AS Roma 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 51%, AS Roma 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.