Empoli 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours AS Roma (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Empoli face AS Roma.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena plays host to Empoli versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Empoli have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Empoli have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

AS Roma (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, AS Roma have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to AS Roma, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Empoli 2–1 AS Roma — a Empoli win.

The H2H data backs the away side. AS Roma have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus AS Roma 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 37% | AS Roma 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Empoli surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while AS Roma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.78 xG and AS Roma 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.623 / defence 1.311 | AS Roma attack 0.924 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.231. Empoli's attack rating of 0.623 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Empoli's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Data: built from Empoli's last 65 games and AS Roma's last 65.

Result probabilities: Empoli 17% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 52%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 5.72 | Draw 3.29 | AS Roma 1.92. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Empoli 40% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 60% (last 10 away games).

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