Cremonese 0-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Monday 19 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hellas Verona have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Cremonese against 0.80 for Hellas Verona. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cremonese 0W, Hellas Verona 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 62% versus Hellas Verona 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 53% | Hellas Verona 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.42 xG and Hellas Verona 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.954 / defence 1.302 | Hellas Verona attack 0.891 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.152. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Cremonese games / 58 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 39% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 35%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Hellas Verona 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 60% | Hellas Verona 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 39% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Cremonese 1.42 / Hellas Verona 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.954 / def 1.302 | Hellas Verona attack 0.891 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hellas Verona xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Cremonese vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Cremonese vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Hellas Verona part of?
Cremonese vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 39% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cremonese and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Hellas Verona?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Hellas Verona in?
Cremonese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.89x) against Cremonese's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
39%
2.55
25%
3.93
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.76
1.34
Hellas Verona xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.34 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 21D 16L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.86 PPG from 58 outings (12W 14D 32L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cremonese's home form reads 9W 13D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.86 points per game from 28 outings (6W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.88 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 21W 21D 16L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 14D 32L in their last 58 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Hellas Verona away?
Cremonese's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.43 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
3
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Hellas Verona?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 71%, Hellas Verona 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 46% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cremonese's games and 50% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 46% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 21, as Cremonese and Hellas Verona drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.42 xG and Hellas Verona 1.34 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hellas Verona landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.95 / defence 1.30 against Hellas Verona attack 0.89 / defence 1.28, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 39% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 35%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 53%, Hellas Verona 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.