Cagliari 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Venezia travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 October 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 0W 2D 4L from 6 Serie A matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have recorded 1W 1D 4L from 6 outings — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's away record: 1W 0D 3L from 4 road trips in Serie A this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.33 PPG (Cagliari) versus 0.67 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Venezia trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 67% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 67% | Venezia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.43 xG and Venezia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.875 / defence 1.378 | Venezia attack 0.564 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.574. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Cagliari games / 6 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 42% | Draw 26% | Venezia 32%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Venezia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 67% | Venezia 25%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 42% | Draw 26% | Venezia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Cagliari 1.43 / Venezia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.875 / def 1.378 | Venezia attack 0.564 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.574 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Venezia xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Venezia kick off?
Cagliari vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Venezia?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Cagliari vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Venezia part of?
Cagliari vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 42% chance of winning, Venezia a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cagliari and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Venezia in?
Cagliari (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.88) and Venezia's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.86
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.65
1.22
Venezia xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.22 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 2D 4L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia's form line: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 0.33 PPG, Venezia on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.67 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 games (0.33 PPG), while Venezia have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.33 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cagliari
3
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Venezia?
From 7 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Cagliari 3-0 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 67%, Venezia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Cagliari and 67% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 33% of games; Venezia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Cagliari's recent matches and 33% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Cagliari's matches and 67% of Venezia's.
Do Cagliari and Venezia tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Venezia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.43 xG and Venezia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 1.38 against Venezia attack 0.56 / defence 1.31, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 42% | Draw 26% | Venezia 32%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 67%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.33 PPG, Venezia 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.