Cagliari 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Cagliari welcome Monza to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 5W 2D 3L at Unipol Domus — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Monza have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Monza's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Monza in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 56% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 48% | Monza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.24 xG and Monza 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.004 / defence 1.542 | Monza attack 0.986 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.147. Data: 12 Cagliari games / 50 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 27% | Draw 24% | Monza 49%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Monza 2.04. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 80% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 27% | Draw 24% | Monza 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Cagliari 1.24 / Monza 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.004 / def 1.542 | Monza attack 0.986 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Monza (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Monza xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Monza kick off?
Cagliari vs Monza kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Monza?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Cagliari vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Monza part of?
Cagliari vs Monza is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 27% chance of winning, Monza a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cagliari and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Monza in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
27%
3.67
24%
4.25
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.98
1.74
Monza xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
5%
21.01
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.74 for Monza, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 17W 19D 14L from 50 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 17L across 50 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.40 PPG, Monza on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 13W 8D 4L from 25 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Monza's away record stands at 9W 6D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.22 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Monza in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 17W 19D 14L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Monza have gone 18W 15D 17L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Monza away?
Cagliari's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.88 PPG; Monza away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Monza in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Monza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cagliari have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Cagliari won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cagliari
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Monza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Cagliari 3-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Monza?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 72%, Monza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cagliari) and 44% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Cagliari's games and 44% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cagliari's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Monza tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Monza in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 13, as Cagliari and Monza drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.24 xG and Monza 1.74 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.00 / defence 1.54 against Monza attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 27% | Draw 24% | Monza 49%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 48%, Monza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.40 PPG, Monza 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.