Cagliari 1-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Lazio at Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 23). Kick-off is Monday 3 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Cagliari — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cagliari at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Lazio have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lazio's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cagliari 1.10 PPG, Lazio 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Lazio have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Cagliari.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2024, ended Cagliari 1–2 Lazio — a Lazio win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lazio have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lazio trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 60% versus Lazio 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 53% | Lazio 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.30 xG and Lazio 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.037 / defence 1.115 | Lazio attack 1.100 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.314. Data: built from Cagliari's last 60 games and Lazio's last 60.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 28% | Draw 29% | Lazio 42%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.52 | Draw 3.40 | Lazio 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.30 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Lazio 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cagliari's last 10 home games and Lazio's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cagliari 40% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 23 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 3 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 28% | Draw 29% | Lazio 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Cagliari 1.30 / Lazio 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.037 / def 1.115 | Lazio attack 1.100 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Lazio (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Lazio xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Lazio kick off?
Cagliari vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 3 February 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Lazio?
Cagliari 1 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Cagliari vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Lazio part of?
Cagliari vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 28% chance of winning, Lazio a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cagliari and Lazio will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cagliari vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 60 games and Lazio's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
28%
3.52
29%
3.40
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.91
1.61
Lazio xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.61 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 18D 29L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.67 PPG from 60 outings (30W 10D 20L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cagliari's home form reads 9W 10D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 3D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.45 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Lazio
Blended
Cagliari (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Cagliari vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Lazio in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 13W 18D 29L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Lazio have gone 30W 10D 20L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.23 PPG; Lazio away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Lazio in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Mar 2022, when Lazio won Cagliari 0-3 Lazio.
Cagliari's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Cagliari
2
Draws
7
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lazio?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 0, Lazio have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Lazio 2-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 67%, Lazio 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cagliari) and 57% (Lazio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Lazio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cagliari's games and 60% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Cagliari's matches and 57% of Lazio's.
Do Cagliari and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Cagliari's recent matches and 80% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Cagliari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.30 xG and Lazio 1.61 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Lazio attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 28% | Draw 29% | Lazio 42%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 53%, Lazio 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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