Cagliari 1-0 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face Juventus.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Juventus meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Unipol Domus this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Juventus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Juventus have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Juventus, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Juventus winning.
It is worth noting that Juventus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 52% versus Juventus 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Juventus 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.94 xG and Juventus 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.972 / defence 1.092 | Juventus attack 1.073 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.167. Data: 58 Cagliari games / 58 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 26% | Draw 27% | Juventus 47%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Juventus 2.13. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 40% | Juventus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 26% | Draw 27% | Juventus 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Cagliari 0.94 / Juventus 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.972 / def 1.092 | Juventus attack 1.073 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Juventus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Juventus xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Juventus kick off?
Cagliari vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Juventus?
Cagliari 1 - 0 Juventus.
Where is Cagliari vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Juventus part of?
Cagliari vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 26% chance of winning, Juventus a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cagliari and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Juventus?
Record (7 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 2 | Juventus 5W.
What form are Cagliari and Juventus in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Juventus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.97) and Juventus's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (1.07x) against Cagliari's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
26%
3.86
27%
3.64
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.31
1.37
Juventus xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
7%
15.16
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.37 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari's recent record stands at 13W 16D 29L from 58 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 29W 22D 7L across 58 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 8W 7D 13L from 28 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 11W 11D 6L across 28 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.55 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Juventus in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 13W 16D 29L in their last 58 games (0.95 PPG), while Juventus have gone 29W 22D 7L in their last 58 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.11 PPG; Juventus away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Juventus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
2
Draws
5
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Juventus?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Juventus have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Cagliari 1-0 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 46%, Juventus 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 36% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 32%; Cagliari have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cagliari's recent matches and 54% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 36% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Juventus tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Juventus in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Juventus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Juventus 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.94 xG and Juventus 1.37 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Juventus landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Juventus attack 1.07 / defence 0.82, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 26% | Draw 27% | Juventus 47%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Juventus 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventus's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.