Cagliari 0-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inter at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Inter travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Monday 28 August 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 6W 4D 0L at Unipol Domus — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Inter have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cagliari at 2.40 PPG versus Inter's 2.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cagliari have won 0, Inter 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Inter in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 54% versus Inter 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 41% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.05 xG and Inter 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Inter attack 1.160 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.253. Data: 1 Cagliari games / 39 Inter games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 24% | Draw 24% | Inter 52%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Inter 1.92. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 70% | Inter 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 24% | Draw 24% | Inter 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Cagliari 1.05 / Inter 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Inter attack 1.160 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Inter (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Inter xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Inter kick off?
Cagliari vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 28 August 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Inter?
Cagliari 0 - 2 Inter.
Where is Cagliari vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Inter part of?
Cagliari vs Inter is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 24% chance of winning, Inter a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cagliari and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Inter?
Record (2 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Inter in?
Cagliari (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Inter (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.86x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
24%
4.21
24%
4.12
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.72
1.67
Inter xG
4.21
24%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
4%
22.40
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.67 for Inter, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 15W 17D 7L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter's form line: 24W 3D 12L from 39 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.59 PPG, Inter on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 2.11 PPG from 19 outings (11W 7D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Inter have gone 9W 3D 7L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 1.87 scored and 1.08 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into Cagliari's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Inter in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Inter in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 17D 7L in their last 39 games (1.59 PPG), while Inter have gone 24W 3D 12L in their last 39 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Inter away?
Cagliari's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 2.11 PPG; Inter away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Inter in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Inter have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
1
Draws
7
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Inter have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Inter 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 74%, Inter at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cagliari) and 68% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cagliari's games and 63% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Cagliari's matches and 68% of Inter's.
Do Cagliari and Inter tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Inter in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Cagliari 0-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.05 xG and Inter 1.67 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Inter attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 24% | Draw 24% | Inter 52%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 41%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.59 PPG, Inter 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.