Cagliari 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cagliari's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Unipol Domus this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cremonese (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cremonese's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Cagliari, 0.40 for Cremonese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Cagliari have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cremonese in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cagliari lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 51% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 49% | Cremonese 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.34 xG and Cremonese 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.881 / defence 0.988 | Cremonese attack 0.740 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.167. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Cagliari games / 31 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 24%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 4.17. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 30% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Cagliari 1.34 / Cremonese 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.881 / def 0.988 | Cremonese attack 0.740 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cremonese xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Cremonese kick off?
Cagliari vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Cagliari 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Cagliari vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Cremonese part of?
Cagliari vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 48% chance of winning, Cremonese a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cagliari and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Cagliari and Cremonese in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.74x) against Cagliari's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.56
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.19
0.85
Cremonese xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.85 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari's recent record stands at 16W 18D 35L from 69 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 22W 23D 24L across 69 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Cagliari against 1.29 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 10W 8D 16L from 34 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 12W 8D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.30 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 16W 18D 35L in their last 69 games (0.96 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 22W 23D 24L in their last 69 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.12 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Cremonese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Cagliari 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Cremonese?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 41%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cagliari) and 56% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 38% of games; Cremonese in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cagliari's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cagliari's recent games and 56% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Cremonese tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Cremonese 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.34 xG and Cremonese 0.85 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Cremonese attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 24%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Cremonese 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.96 PPG, Cremonese 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.