Bologna 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bologna's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bologna's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Udinese have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bologna. A 1.40 PPG lead over Udinese (2.30 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bologna edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2023, ended Bologna 0–3 Udinese — a Udinese win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Udinese — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 59%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 55% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Udinese 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bologna surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Udinese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 59% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 45% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.57 xG and Udinese 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.165 / defence 0.611 | Udinese attack 0.777 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.182. Udinese's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.56. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.611), which is pulling Udinese's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 71 games and Udinese's last 71.
Result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 26% | Udinese 12%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.62 | Draw 3.87 | Udinese 8.03. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (62%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Udinese's lower xG of 0.56 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 20% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 26% | Udinese 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Bologna 1.57 / Udinese 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.165 / def 0.611 | Udinese attack 0.777 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Bologna (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Udinese xG
35%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Udinese kick off?
Bologna vs Udinese kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Bologna 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Bologna vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Udinese part of?
Bologna vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 62% chance of winning, Udinese a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Bologna and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Bologna vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.17) and Udinese's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.78x) against Bologna's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 71 games and Udinese's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
62%
1.62
26%
3.87
12%
8.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.14
0.56
Udinese xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
8.03
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
3%
38.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 10.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Bologna and 0.56 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 31W 23D 17L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Udinese's form line: 15W 29D 27L from 71 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 35 home games (19W 11D 5L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 8W 11D 16L from their last 35 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
Bologna (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Bologna vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Udinese in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 31W 23D 17L in their last 71 games (1.63 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 29D 27L in their last 71 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Udinese away?
Bologna's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.94 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bologna or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 23 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Bologna have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won Bologna 3-0 Udinese on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
5
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2026: Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Udinese?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 37%, Udinese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Bologna) and 40% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Udinese in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Bologna's recent matches and 46% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Bologna's recent games and 40% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Bologna's recent matches and 57% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 34, as Bologna and Udinese drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.57 xG and Udinese 0.56 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.17 / defence 0.61 against Udinese attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 62% | Draw 26% | Udinese 12%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Udinese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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