Bologna 2-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bologna at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Monday 11 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sampdoria (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Sampdoria have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Bologna, 0.90 for Sampdoria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Bologna winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 43% versus Sampdoria 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Sampdoria 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.06 xG and Sampdoria 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.752 / defence 1.073 | Sampdoria attack 0.715 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.250. Bologna's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Bologna games / 31 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 35% | Draw 35% | Sampdoria 30%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | Sampdoria 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Sampdoria 40% BTTS from recent games.

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