Bologna 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Bologna take on Salernitana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salernitana make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Thursday 1 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Salernitana have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salernitana's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Salernitana arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bologna, 0 for Salernitana and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Salernitana 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Salernitana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.16 xG and Salernitana 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.932 / defence 1.013 | Salernitana attack 0.865 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.064. Data: 41 Bologna games / 41 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 38% | Salernitana 25%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.70 | Draw 2.63 | Salernitana 4.00. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Salernitana 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 38% | Salernitana 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Bologna 1.16 / Salernitana 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.932 / def 1.013 | Salernitana attack 0.865 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Salernitana xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Salernitana kick off?
Bologna vs Salernitana kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 1 September 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Salernitana?
Bologna 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Bologna vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Salernitana part of?
Bologna vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 37% chance of winning, Salernitana a 25% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bologna and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Salernitana?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Bologna and Salernitana in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Salernitana (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bologna's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.86x) against Bologna's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.70
38%
2.67
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.09
0.93
Salernitana xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bologna and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bologna and 0.93 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 12W 11D 18L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salernitana's form line: 8W 11D 22L from 41 games, 0.85 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Bologna against 0.85 for Salernitana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.90 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Salernitana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 12W 11D 18L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 8W 11D 22L in their last 41 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Salernitana away?
Bologna's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.45 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Bologna or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Salernitana in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Salernitana have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Bologna 3-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Salernitana?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 45%, Salernitana 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bologna) and 55% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 30% of games; Salernitana in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bologna's recent matches and 55% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bologna's recent games and 55% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Salernitana tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Salernitana finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.16 xG and Salernitana 0.93 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Salernitana attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 37% | Draw 38% | Salernitana 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Salernitana 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Salernitana's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.15 PPG, Salernitana 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.