Bologna 0-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as Bologna welcome Lazio to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Lazio have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.50 PPG, Lazio 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bologna, 3 for Lazio and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Lazio trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Lazio 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Lazio 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.75 xG and Lazio 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.738 / defence 1.100 | Lazio attack 0.693 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.194. Bologna's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lazio's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 Bologna games / 67 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 28% | Draw 34% | Lazio 37%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Lazio 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Bologna's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 28% | Draw 34% | Lazio 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Bologna 0.75 / Lazio 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.738 / def 1.100 | Lazio attack 0.693 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Lazio (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Lazio xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lazio kick off?
Bologna vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Bologna 0 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Bologna vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lazio part of?
Bologna vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 28% chance of winning, Lazio a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Bologna and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
Record (8 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 2 | Lazio 3W.
What form are Bologna and Lazio in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Lazio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.74x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
28%
3.54
34%
2.91
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.66
0.91
Lazio xG
3.54
28%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 17.3 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Bologna and 0.91 for Lazio, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 67 games, going 28W 20D 19L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.57 PPG from 67 outings (28W 21D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.55 PPG, Lazio on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 15W 9D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.52 points per game from 33 outings (14W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.34 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lazio in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 28W 20D 19L in their last 67 games (1.55 PPG), while Lazio have gone 28W 21D 18L in their last 67 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lazio away?
Bologna's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.64 PPG; Lazio away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lazio in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
2
Draws
5
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Lazio have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 52%, Lazio 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bologna) and 39% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lazio in 42%; Lazio in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bologna's recent matches and 33% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bologna's recent games and 39% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Bologna 0-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.75 xG and Lazio 0.91 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lazio outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against Lazio attack 0.69 / defence 0.79, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 28% | Draw 34% | Lazio 37%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Lazio 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.55 PPG, Lazio 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.