Bologna 0-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Empoli have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.30 (Empoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bologna, 1 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 2–4 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bologna 50% and Empoli 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 59% | Empoli 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.15 xG and Empoli 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.857 / defence 1.174 | Empoli attack 0.932 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.521. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Bologna games / 23 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 25% | Draw 28% | Empoli 48%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Empoli 2.08. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 30% | Empoli 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 25% | Draw 28% | Empoli 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Bologna 1.15 / Empoli 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.857 / def 1.174 | Empoli attack 0.932 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Empoli (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Empoli xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Empoli kick off?
Bologna vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Bologna 0 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Bologna vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Empoli part of?
Bologna vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 25% chance of winning, Empoli a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bologna and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Bologna and Empoli in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.86x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
25%
4.05
28%
3.62
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.81
1.66
Empoli xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
21.36
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bologna and 1.66 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 8W 3D 11L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli's form line: 8W 5D 9L from 22 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.23 PPG, Empoli on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 5W 4D 2L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.32 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.64 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Empoli in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 8W 3D 11L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Empoli have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.45 PPG; Empoli away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Bologna or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Empoli in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Empoli have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Empoli 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 36%, Empoli 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bologna) and 46% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bologna's recent matches and 64% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bologna's recent games and 46% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Empoli tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Empoli in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 24, as Bologna and Empoli drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.15 xG and Empoli 1.66 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Empoli landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Empoli attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 25% | Draw 28% | Empoli 48%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 59%, Empoli 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Empoli's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.23 PPG, Empoli 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.