Bologna 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bologna at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bologna face Empoli.

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Analysis & Preview

Empoli travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna in Serie A (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Bologna's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Empoli have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Empoli have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.50 (Empoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Bologna have won 2, Empoli 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2024, ended Bologna 1–0 Empoli — a Bologna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Bologna in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Empoli in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 45% versus Empoli 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 42% | Empoli 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.41 xG and Empoli 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.078 / defence 0.936 | Empoli attack 1.004 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.121. Data: built from Bologna's last 40 games and Empoli's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 32% | Empoli 25%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.36 | Draw 3.09 | Empoli 3.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bologna 40% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Bologna 40 games, Empoli 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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