Bologna 1-3 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Cremonese meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Cremonese have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 5–1 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cremonese — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bologna 52% and Cremonese 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Cremonese 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.57 xG and Cremonese 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.192 / defence 0.672 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.126. Bologna's defence rating of 0.672 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Bologna games / 12 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 58% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 14%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 40% | Cremonese 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 1 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 58% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 39% | xG Bologna 1.57 / Cremonese 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.192 / def 0.672 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Bologna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Cremonese xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Cremonese kick off?
Bologna vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 1 December 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Cremonese?
Bologna 1 - 3 Cremonese.
Where is Bologna vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Cremonese part of?
Bologna vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 58% chance of winning, Cremonese a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bologna and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Bologna and Cremonese in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.19x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.86x) against Bologna's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
58%
1.71
27%
3.67
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.22
0.65
Cremonese xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
3%
33.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Bologna and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Bologna and 0.65 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna's recent record stands at 23W 17D 10L from 50 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 12L across 50 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Bologna against 1.52 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 14W 8D 2L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 10W 7D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.54 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 68%.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 23W 17D 10L in their last 50 games (1.72 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 19W 19D 12L in their last 50 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Cremonese away?
Bologna's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.08 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Bologna or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cremonese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 1-5 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bologna
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Cremonese 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Cremonese?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 54%, Cremonese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bologna) and 58% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bologna's games and 58% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bologna's recent games and 58% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Cremonese tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Bologna 1-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.57 xG and Cremonese 0.65 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 0.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.19 / defence 0.67 against Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 58% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 14%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Cremonese 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.72 PPG, Cremonese 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.