Bologna 2-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bologna face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bologna welcome AS Roma to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 17 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bologna — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Bologna have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, AS Roma have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AS Roma's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Bologna) versus 2.00 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Bologna, 1 for AS Roma and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Bologna 0–0 AS Roma — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 60% versus AS Roma 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | AS Roma 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.35 xG and AS Roma 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.024 / defence 0.739 | AS Roma attack 1.043 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.115. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.739), which is pulling AS Roma's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 53 games and AS Roma's last 53.
Result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 23%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.11 | Draw 3.36 | AS Roma 4.37. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 0.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bologna 40% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Bologna 1.35 / AS Roma 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.024 / def 0.739 | AS Roma attack 1.043 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Bologna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.86
AS Roma xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Bologna vs AS Roma kick off?
Bologna vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Bologna 2 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Bologna vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AS Roma part of?
Bologna vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 47% chance of winning, AS Roma a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bologna and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Bologna vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bologna's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 53 games and AS Roma's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.36
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.21
0.86
AS Roma xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
16.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bologna and 0.86 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 20W 19D 14L from 53 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 15L across 53 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.49 PPG, AS Roma on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 12W 10D 4L from their last 26 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across their last 26 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.47 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
Bologna (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 20W 19D 14L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 25W 13D 15L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AS Roma away?
Bologna's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.77 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Bologna or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AS Roma in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: AS Roma have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Bologna's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 4, AS Roma have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AS Roma?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 46%, AS Roma 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bologna) and 50% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and AS Roma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Bologna's games and 65% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bologna and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Bologna's recent matches and 77% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat AS Roma 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.35 xG and AS Roma 0.86 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.02 / defence 0.74 against AS Roma attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 47% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 23%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, AS Roma 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.49 PPG, AS Roma 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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