Bologna 2-1 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bologna face AC Milan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bologna welcome AC Milan to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 9). Kick-off is Thursday 27 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bologna have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bologna have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AC Milan stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AC Milan have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.80 (AC Milan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Bologna, 2 for AC Milan and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Bologna 2–2 AC Milan — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
AC Milan in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus AC Milan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | AC Milan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.68 xG and AC Milan 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.233 / defence 0.976 | AC Milan attack 1.020 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.225. Data: built from Bologna's last 63 games and AC Milan's last 63.
Result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.14 | Draw 3.71 | AC Milan 3.80. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and AC Milan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 50% (last 10 home games) | AC Milan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Thursday 27 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Bologna 1.68 / AC Milan 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.233 / def 0.976 | AC Milan attack 1.020 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Bologna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.22
AC Milan xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan FAQs
What time does Bologna vs AC Milan kick off?
Bologna vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Thursday 27 February 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Bologna 2 - 1 AC Milan.
Where is Bologna vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AC Milan part of?
Bologna vs AC Milan is a Serie A fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 47% chance of winning, AC Milan a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bologna and AC Milan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bologna vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.23x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 63 games and AC Milan's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.71
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.90
1.22
AC Milan xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
5%
20.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Bologna and 1.22 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 28W 25D 10L from 63 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 33W 17D 13L across 63 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.73 PPG, AC Milan on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 18W 10D 3L from their last 31 home games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Milan's away record stands at 15W 7D 9L across their last 31 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.79 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; AC Milan in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
Bologna (Home) vs AC Milan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 28W 25D 10L in their last 63 games (1.73 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 33W 17D 13L in their last 63 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AC Milan away?
Bologna's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.06 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Bologna or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AC Milan in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 28 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
Bologna's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
5
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 2, AC Milan have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AC Milan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2026: AC Milan 2-4 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 42%, AC Milan 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bologna) and 74% (AC Milan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and AC Milan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Bologna's games and 71% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bologna and AC Milan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Bologna's matches and 74% of AC Milan's.
Do Bologna and AC Milan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Bologna's recent matches and 74% of AC Milan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out AC Milan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat AC Milan 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.68 xG and AC Milan 1.22 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.23 / defence 0.98 against AC Milan attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 46%, AC Milan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Milan's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.73 PPG, AC Milan 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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