Atalanta 3-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
New Balance Arena plays host to Atalanta versus Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Monday 12 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 5W 2D 3L at New Balance Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atalanta are significantly better at New Balance Arena than their overall form suggests.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Atalanta against 1.10 for Venezia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Atalanta are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Atalanta a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Venezia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 40% | Venezia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.77 xG and Venezia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.976 / defence 0.909 | Venezia attack 0.863 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.260. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Atalanta games / 5 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 56% | Draw 24% | Venezia 21%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Venezia 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 50% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Monday 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 56% | Draw 24% | Venezia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Atalanta 1.77 / Venezia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 0.976 / def 0.909 | Venezia attack 0.863 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Venezia xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Venezia kick off?
Atalanta vs Venezia kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 12 October 2026 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Venezia?
Atalanta 3 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Atalanta vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Venezia part of?
Atalanta vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 56% chance of winning, Venezia a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atalanta and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Venezia?
Record (4 meetings): Atalanta 3W | Draws 1 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Venezia in?
Atalanta (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (0.98) and Venezia's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.86x) against Atalanta's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.18
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.76
0.99
Venezia xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
3%
28.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.99 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atalanta's recent record stands at 17W 14D 12L from 43 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 9L across 43 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Atalanta against 1.91 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 11W 5D 5L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 7W 10D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.88 scored and 1.02 conceded. Venezia's attacking output running into Atalanta's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Venezia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Venezia in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 17W 14D 12L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Venezia have gone 24W 10D 9L in their last 43 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Venezia away?
Atalanta's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.81 PPG; Venezia away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Venezia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 12 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Atalanta
1
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Venezia?
From 5 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 4, Venezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2026, when Atalanta 3-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Venezia?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 43%, Venezia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atalanta) and 52% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Atalanta have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Atalanta's recent matches and 67% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atalanta's recent games and 52% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Venezia tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Venezia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Venezia 3-1 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.77 xG and Venezia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Venezia attack 0.86 / defence 1.31, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 56% | Draw 24% | Venezia 21%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 40%, Venezia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.51 PPG, Venezia 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.