Atalanta 1-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Torino meet at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Atalanta's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Atalanta have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino (all games): 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Torino have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Atalanta's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Torino's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Atalanta edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Atalanta 1–2 Torino — a Torino win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 57% versus Torino 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 65% | Torino 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.01 xG and Torino 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.502 / defence 1.086 | Torino attack 0.911 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.336. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.502 — their 2.01 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atalanta's last 60 games and Torino's last 60.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 52% | Draw 25% | Torino 23%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.93 | Draw 4.03 | Torino 4.27. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 90% (last 10 home games) | Torino 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 23 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 52% | Draw 25% | Torino 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Atalanta 2.01 / Torino 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.502 / def 1.086 | Torino attack 0.911 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Torino xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Torino FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Torino kick off?
Atalanta vs Torino kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Torino?
Atalanta 1 - 1 Torino.
Where is Atalanta vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Torino part of?
Atalanta vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 52% chance of winning, Torino a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Atalanta and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.50) and Torino's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.91x) against Atalanta's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 60 games and Torino's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.03
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.33
1.32
Torino xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
3%
31.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.32 for Torino, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 35W 10D 15L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Torino's form line: 19W 22D 19L from 60 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 29 home games (20W 3D 6L).
On the road, Torino have gone 8W 9D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 0.98 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Torino in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Torino
Blended
Atalanta (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Atalanta vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Torino in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 35W 10D 15L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while Torino have gone 19W 22D 19L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Torino away?
Atalanta's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.17 PPG; Torino away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Torino in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Atalanta have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Torino won Torino 3-0 Atalanta on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atalanta
2
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Torino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 6, Torino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: Atalanta 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Torino?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 62%, Torino 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Atalanta) and 38% (Torino). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Torino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Atalanta's recent matches and 45% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Atalanta's matches and 38% of Torino's.
Do Atalanta and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Atalanta's recent matches and 55% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Torino finished level at 1-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.01 xG and Torino 1.32 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.50 / defence 1.09 against Torino attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 52% | Draw 25% | Torino 23%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 65%, Torino 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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