Atalanta 0-3 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atalanta at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Sassuolo travel to Gewiss Stadium to take on Atalanta. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 3W 5D 2L at Gewiss Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sassuolo — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sassuolo have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atalanta 1.30 PPG, Sassuolo 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Atalanta, 2 for Sassuolo and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Atalanta winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Sassuolo trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Sassuolo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 48% | Sassuolo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.33 xG and Sassuolo 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.088 / defence 0.919 | Sassuolo attack 0.931 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.031. Data: 48 Atalanta games / 10 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 45% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 23%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Sassuolo 4.35. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Atalanta 70% | Sassuolo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 45% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Atalanta 1.33 / Sassuolo 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.088 / def 0.919 | Sassuolo attack 0.931 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sassuolo xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Sassuolo kick off?
Atalanta vs Sassuolo kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Atalanta 0 - 3 Sassuolo.
Where is Atalanta vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Sassuolo part of?
Atalanta vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 45% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atalanta and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Sassuolo?
Record (6 meetings): Atalanta 4W | Draws 0 | Sassuolo 2W.
What form are Atalanta and Sassuolo in?
Atalanta (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.09) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
45%
2.21
31%
3.18
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.21
0.88
Sassuolo xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
16.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.88 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atalanta's recent record stands at 24W 15D 9L from 48 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 29W 8D 11L across 48 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.81 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 10W 9D 5L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 13W 6D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.85 scored and 1.04 conceded. Sassuolo's attacking output running into Atalanta's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Sassuolo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 24W 15D 9L in their last 48 games (1.81 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 29W 8D 11L in their last 48 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.62 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atalanta and Sassuolo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Atalanta won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Atalanta
0
Draws
4
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Sassuolo?
From 9 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 5, Sassuolo have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Sassuolo?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Atalanta at 71%, Sassuolo at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Atalanta) and 54% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Atalanta's games and 62% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Atalanta's recent games and 54% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sassuolo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Atalanta.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Atalanta 0-3 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.33 xG and Sassuolo 0.88 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sassuolo outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against Sassuolo attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 45% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 23%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Sassuolo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 48%, Sassuolo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.81 PPG, Sassuolo 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.