Atalanta 2-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Atalanta face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atalanta welcome Hellas Verona to Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 32). Kick-off is Monday 15 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Atalanta — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hellas Verona's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Atalanta have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Atalanta: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Hellas Verona, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended Atalanta 1–0 Hellas Verona — a Atalanta win.
The head-to-head data gives Atalanta an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Hellas Verona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 56% | Hellas Verona 43%). Note also that Hellas Verona surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Atalanta recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.346 / defence 0.846 | Hellas Verona attack 0.766 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.187. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.346 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Atalanta's last 68 games and Hellas Verona's last 69.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 59% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 16%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.69 | Draw 3.98 | Hellas Verona 6.41. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atalanta 60% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 59% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Atalanta 1.72 / Hellas Verona 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.346 / def 0.846 | Hellas Verona attack 0.766 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Hellas Verona xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Atalanta vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 15 April 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Atalanta 2 - 2 Hellas Verona.
Where is Atalanta vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Hellas Verona part of?
Atalanta vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 59% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atalanta and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Atalanta vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 68 games and Hellas Verona's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.98
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.49
0.77
Hellas Verona xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
3%
35.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.77 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 34W 12D 22L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Hellas Verona's form line: 14W 18D 36L from 68 games, 0.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 33 home games (20W 4D 9L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 4W 9D 20L from their last 33 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.87 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 34W 12D 22L in their last 68 games (1.68 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 14W 18D 36L in their last 68 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Hellas Verona away?
Atalanta's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.94 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Atalanta won Atalanta 6-1 Hellas Verona.
Atalanta's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atalanta
1
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Hellas Verona?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 7, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Hellas Verona?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 58%, Hellas Verona 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Atalanta) and 36% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Atalanta's recent matches and 48% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Atalanta's recent games and 36% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Atalanta's recent matches and 67% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Atalanta and Hellas Verona drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 0.77 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.35 / defence 0.85 against Hellas Verona attack 0.77 / defence 0.94, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 59% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 16%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 56%, Hellas Verona 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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