Atalanta 2-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atalanta at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Atalanta welcome Fiorentina to New Balance Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's home record at New Balance Arena: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fiorentina — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Atalanta register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Fiorentina in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fiorentina, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Atalanta.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Fiorentina winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fiorentina have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Fiorentina 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 50% | Fiorentina 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.32 xG and Fiorentina 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.961 / defence 1.068 | Fiorentina attack 0.871 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.134. Data: 50 Atalanta games / 50 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 41% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Fiorentina 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Fiorentina lead the H2H ledger, but Atalanta carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Atalanta 70% | Fiorentina 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 41% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Atalanta 1.32 / Fiorentina 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 0.961 / def 1.068 | Fiorentina attack 0.871 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fiorentina xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Fiorentina kick off?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Atalanta 2 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Atalanta vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Fiorentina part of?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 41% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atalanta and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Record (8 meetings): Atalanta 2W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 5W.
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in?
Atalanta (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.28
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.38
1.05
Fiorentina xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.05 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 24W 15D 11L from 50 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 17L across 50 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.74 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 10W 9D 6L from 25 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 24W 15D 11L in their last 50 games (1.74 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Fiorentina away?
Atalanta's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.56 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atalanta's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 68%, Fiorentina 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Atalanta) and 56% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Atalanta's games and 56% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Atalanta's recent games and 56% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Fiorentina 2-0 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.32 xG and Fiorentina 1.05 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fiorentina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Fiorentina attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 41% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 50%, Fiorentina 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fiorentina's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.74 PPG, Fiorentina 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.