Atalanta 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Gewiss Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gewiss Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Atalanta are significantly better at Gewiss Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Atalanta, 1.90 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Atalanta 2W, AS Roma 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 56% versus AS Roma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 57% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.76 xG and AS Roma 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.352 / defence 0.892 | AS Roma attack 1.174 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.180. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 72 Atalanta games / 73 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 49% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 26%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | AS Roma 3.85. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 50% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 49% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Atalanta 1.76 / AS Roma 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.352 / def 0.892 | AS Roma attack 1.174 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.24
AS Roma xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs AS Roma kick off?
Atalanta vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Atalanta 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Atalanta vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs AS Roma part of?
Atalanta vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 49% chance of winning, AS Roma a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Atalanta and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and AS Roma?
Record (5 meetings): Atalanta 2W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Atalanta and AS Roma in?
Atalanta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.17x) against Atalanta's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.93
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.00
1.24
AS Roma xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
4%
22.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Atalanta and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.24 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 37W 13D 22L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 34W 18D 20L from 72 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Atalanta against 1.67 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.94 PPG from 35 outings (21W 5D 9L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 11D 12L from 35 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.54 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 37W 13D 22L in their last 72 games (1.72 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 34W 18D 20L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or AS Roma away?
Atalanta's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.94 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Atalanta or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AS Roma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 1-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atalanta
2
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 6, AS Roma have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and AS Roma?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 57%, AS Roma 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Atalanta) and 57% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Atalanta's games and 66% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Atalanta's matches and 57% of AS Roma's.
Do Atalanta and AS Roma tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat AS Roma 2-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.76 xG and AS Roma 1.24 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against AS Roma attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 49% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 26%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 57%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.72 PPG, AS Roma 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.