AS Roma 2-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Venezia meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for AS Roma, 1.40 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: AS Roma 0W, Venezia 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 60% versus Venezia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 58% | Venezia 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.05 xG and Venezia 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.177 / defence 0.891 | Venezia attack 0.645 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.254. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 AS Roma games / 5 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 66% | Draw 25% | Venezia 9%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.52 | Draw 4.00 | Venezia 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (66%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 50% | Venezia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 66% | Draw 25% | Venezia 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG AS Roma 2.05 / Venezia 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.177 / def 0.891 | Venezia attack 0.645 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Venezia xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Venezia kick off?
AS Roma vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Venezia?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Venezia.
Where is AS Roma vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Venezia part of?
AS Roma vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 66% chance of winning, Venezia a 9% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AS Roma and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 0W | Draws 1 | Venezia 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Venezia in?
AS Roma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.18x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.65x) against AS Roma's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
66%
1.52
25%
4.01
9%
10.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.77
0.72
Venezia xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
10.70
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
1%
83.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.72 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma's recent record stands at 19W 12D 12L from 43 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 23W 7D 13L across 43 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for AS Roma against 1.77 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 13W 4D 4L from 21 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Venezia's away record stands at 8W 4D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.63 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Venezia in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while Venezia have gone 23W 7D 13L in their last 43 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Venezia away?
AS Roma's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.05 PPG; Venezia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Venezia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
AS Roma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Venezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Venezia 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Venezia?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 57%, Venezia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for AS Roma and 67% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Venezia in 38%; Venezia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of AS Roma's recent matches and 48% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of AS Roma's matches and 67% of Venezia's.
Do AS Roma and Venezia tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Venezia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Venezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Venezia 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.05 xG and Venezia 0.72 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against Venezia attack 0.65 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 66% | Draw 25% | Venezia 9%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 58%, Venezia 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.60 PPG, Venezia 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.