AS Roma 1-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Torino in Serie A (matchday 10). Kick-off: Thursday 31 October 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Roma's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Torino (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Torino have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for AS Roma, 1.40 for Torino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, AS Roma have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Torino managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2024, ended AS Roma 3–2 Torino — a AS Roma win.
The head-to-head data gives AS Roma an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 62% versus Torino 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 57% | Torino 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.72 xG and Torino 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.983 / defence 0.858 | Torino attack 1.147 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.293. Data: built from AS Roma's last 47 games and Torino's last 47.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 47% | Draw 26% | Torino 27%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.14 | Draw 3.83 | Torino 3.67. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (AS Roma 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 50% (last 10 home games) | Torino 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Thursday 31 October 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 47% | Draw 26% | Torino 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG AS Roma 1.72 / Torino 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.983 / def 0.858 | Torino attack 1.147 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Torino xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Torino FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Torino kick off?
AS Roma vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Thursday 31 October 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Torino?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Torino.
Where is AS Roma vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Torino part of?
AS Roma vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 10) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 47% chance of winning, Torino a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both AS Roma and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AS Roma's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Torino's attack (1.15x) against AS Roma's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 47 games and Torino's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.83
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.99
1.27
Torino xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
5%
20.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.27 for Torino, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 20W 13D 14L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Torino's form line: 17W 16D 14L from 47 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for AS Roma against 1.43 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 23 home games (14W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Torino have gone 7W 6D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.09 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Torino in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Torino
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Torino in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 games (1.55 PPG), while Torino have gone 17W 16D 14L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Torino away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Torino away: 1.17 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Torino in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AS Roma and Torino, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won Torino 0-3 AS Roma on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 7, Torino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Torino?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 56%, Torino 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AS Roma) and 44% (Torino).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Torino in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of AS Roma's recent matches and 48% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of AS Roma's recent games and 44% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of AS Roma's recent matches and 52% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Torino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Torino 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.72 xG and Torino 1.27 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Torino landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Torino attack 1.15 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 47% | Draw 26% | Torino 27%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 57%, Torino 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Torino's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.55 PPG, Torino 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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