AS Roma 1-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (AS Roma) versus 1.00 (Cagliari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, AS Roma have won 1, Cagliari 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Cagliari 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 57% | Cagliari 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.68 xG and Cagliari 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.009 / defence 1.047 | Cagliari attack 0.574 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.574. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 AS Roma games / 21 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 21%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Cagliari 4.76. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: AS Roma 40% | Cagliari 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG AS Roma 1.68 / Cagliari 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.009 / def 1.047 | Cagliari attack 0.574 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.574 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Cagliari xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?
AS Roma vs Cagliari kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is AS Roma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cagliari part of?
AS Roma vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 54% chance of winning, Cagliari a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AS Roma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.01x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.06
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.63
0.95
Cagliari xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
4%
25.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.95 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 21 games, going 10W 2D 9L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.76 PPG from 21 outings (3W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 5W 2D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 10W 2D 9L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 3W 7D 11L in their last 21 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cagliari away?
AS Roma's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.70 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.60 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cagliari in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Cagliari runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cagliari?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 40%, Cagliari 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AS Roma) and 60% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cagliari in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AS Roma's recent matches and 40% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AS Roma's recent games and 60% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cagliari tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Cagliari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.68 xG and Cagliari 0.95 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cagliari landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Cagliari attack 0.57 / defence 1.42, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 54% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 21%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 57%, Cagliari 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.