AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Atalanta meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AS Roma, 2 for Atalanta and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Atalanta winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus Atalanta 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 45% | Atalanta 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.90 xG and Atalanta 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.307 / defence 0.840 | Atalanta attack 1.030 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.056. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 AS Roma games / 56 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 60% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 17%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Atalanta 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 60% | Atalanta 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 60% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG AS Roma 1.90 / Atalanta 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.307 / def 0.840 | Atalanta attack 1.030 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Atalanta xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Atalanta kick off?
AS Roma vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 7 January 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is AS Roma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Atalanta part of?
AS Roma vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 60% chance of winning, Atalanta a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AS Roma and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Record (4 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 2W.
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Atalanta (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.31) and Atalanta's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.03x) against AS Roma's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.31
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.81
0.91
Atalanta xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
39.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.91 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 26W 13D 17L from 56 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 19L across 56 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for AS Roma against 1.66 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 17W 5D 6L from 28 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 12W 5D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.70 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 28W 9D 19L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Atalanta away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.46 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Atalanta in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 1-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
2
Draws
6
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 39%, Atalanta 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AS Roma) and 46% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Atalanta in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AS Roma's recent matches and 46% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AS Roma's recent games and 46% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Atalanta tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 19, as AS Roma and Atalanta drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.90 xG and Atalanta 0.91 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.31 / defence 0.84 against Atalanta attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 60% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 17%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 45%, Atalanta 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.62 PPG, Atalanta 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.