Waterford 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Waterford (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waterford at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Waterford are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record over their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. St Patrick's Athl. are 2.00 PPG clear of Waterford over their recent games (2.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Waterford's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) — Waterford have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, St Patrick's Athl. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Waterford, 1 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Waterford 0–3 St Patrick's Athl. — a St Patrick's Athl. win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waterford — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 51% versus St Patrick's Athl. 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 51% | St Patrick's Athl. 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waterford surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while St Patrick's Athl. have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.06 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.844 / defence 1.220 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.005 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.023. Waterford's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. Data: built from Waterford's last 42 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 42.
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.24 | Draw 3.51 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Waterford 60% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Waterford 1.06 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.844 / def 1.220 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.005 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.25
St Patrick's Athl. xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. FAQs
What time does Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Waterford 1 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waterford's attack at 0.84x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.00x) against Waterford's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 42 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.51
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.31
1.25
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Waterford and 1.25 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waterford's recent record stands at 14W 6D 17L from 37 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 12L across 37 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Waterford against 1.59 for St Patrick's Athl.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 8W 4D 7L from their last 19 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across their last 19 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Waterford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.38 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Waterford (Home) vs St Patrick's Athl. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 17W 8D 12L in their last 37 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Waterford's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.47 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Waterford or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl., the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Waterford on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Waterford
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waterford see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 63%, St Patrick's Athl. 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Waterford) and 53% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 32%; Waterford have failed to score in 32% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Waterford's games and 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Waterford's recent games and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Waterford's recent matches and 68% of St Patrick's Athl.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Waterford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Waterford 1-2 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.06 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, St Patrick's Athl. 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.30 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.