Waterford 1-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Shamrock Rovers at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 8). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 2 matches, Waterford stand at 1W 0D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Across their last 10 games, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.89 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.968 / defence 1.024 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.904 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.064. Data: built from Waterford's last 7 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 42.
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 36%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.20 | Draw 3.10 | Shamrock Rovers 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waterford's last 2 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 8 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Waterford 0.89 / Shamrock Rovers 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.968 / def 1.024 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.904 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Shamrock Rovers xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Waterford 1 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 8) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Waterford and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waterford's attack rating (0.97) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 7 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
31%
3.20
32%
3.10
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Waterford xG
Total xG
1.88
0.99
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Waterford and 0.99 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W.
On the other side, Shamrock Rovers sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shamrock Rovers's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Shamrock Rovers
Early Season
Waterford (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Early Season
Shamrock Rovers
Early Season
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Waterford or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Waterford's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Waterford
1
Draws
9
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 0, Shamrock Rovers have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Waterford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-2 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.89 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.99 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 0.81, drawn from 7/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 36%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.