Waterford 4-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waterford face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waterford welcome Dundalk to Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 15). Kick-off is Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 2 games, Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Dundalk — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.50 PPG versus Dundalk's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Waterford have won 0, Dundalk 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2024, ended Waterford 0–0 Dundalk — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.05 xG and Dundalk 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.771 / defence 1.220 | Dundalk attack 0.935 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 0.927. Waterford's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Dundalk's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waterford's projected output up. Waterford's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dundalk's projected output up. Data: built from Waterford's last 14 games and Dundalk's last 50.
Result probabilities: Waterford 33% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 34%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.01 | Draw 3.04 | Dundalk 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 15 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 33% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Waterford 1.05 / Dundalk 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.771 / def 1.220 | Dundalk attack 0.935 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.109 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Dundalk xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Dundalk kick off?
Waterford vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Waterford 4 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Waterford vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Dundalk part of?
Waterford vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 15) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 33% chance of winning, Dundalk a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Waterford and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Waterford vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 14 games and Dundalk's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.04
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.10
1.06
Dundalk xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Waterford and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Waterford and 1.06 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waterford heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 3.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Dundalk's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Dundalk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Dundalk
Early Season
Waterford (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Early Season
Dundalk
Early Season
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Waterford or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Dundalk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won Dundalk 5-0 Waterford.
Waterford's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Waterford
4
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 4, Dundalk have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Waterford 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Dundalk?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Waterford and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 50% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Waterford run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Dundalk 4-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.05 xG and Dundalk 1.06 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.77 / defence 1.22 against Dundalk attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 14/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 33% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 34%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Dundalk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waterford scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk managed 1 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.