UCD 1-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this UCD vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Finals sees Waterford travel to Richmond Park to take on UCD. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, UCD stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
UCD's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Richmond Park this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waterford — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Waterford haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Waterford away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: UCD 1.00 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. UCD register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waterford in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for UCD, 0 for Waterford and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with UCD winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
UCD in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Waterford in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 46% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 49% | Waterford 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.03 xG and Waterford 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.714 / defence 1.427 | Waterford attack 0.998 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.059. UCD's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 UCD games / 36 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 26% | Draw 26% | Waterford 48%. Fair-value odds: UCD 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Waterford 2.08. Waterford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waterford as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: UCD 60% | Waterford 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Finals | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 26% | Draw 26% | Waterford 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG UCD 1.03 / Waterford 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.714 / def 1.427 | Waterford attack 0.998 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Waterford (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Waterford xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Waterford kick off?
UCD vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in UCD vs Waterford?
UCD 1 - 0 Waterford.
Where is UCD vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is UCD vs Waterford part of?
UCD vs Waterford is a Finals fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 26% chance of winning, Waterford a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both UCD and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Waterford?
Record (1 meetings): UCD 1W | Draws 0 | Waterford 0W.
What form are UCD and Waterford in?
UCD (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Waterford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.71x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
26%
3.88
26%
3.87
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
UCD xG
Total xG
2.53
1.51
Waterford xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
6%
17.53
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are UCD and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for UCD and 1.51 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
UCD come into this having played 37 games, going 7W 8D 22L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Waterford sit at 1.14 PPG from 37 outings (12W 6D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. Waterford haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: UCD on 0.78 PPG, Waterford on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
UCD's home form reads 3W 5D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Waterford have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (6W 2D 10L).
The Goals Picture
UCD are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.00 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Waterford in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 7W 8D 22L in their last 37 games (0.78 PPG), while Waterford have gone 12W 6D 19L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Waterford away?
Waterford's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.78 PPG; Waterford away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between UCD and Waterford runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
UCD
0
Draws
0
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Waterford?
From 2 meetings on record, UCD have won 2, Waterford have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2022, when UCD 1-0 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Waterford?
UCD have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
UCD see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 50%, Waterford 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (UCD) and 56% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 50% of games; Waterford in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of UCD's recent matches and 50% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of UCD's recent games and 56% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Waterford tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Waterford in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as UCD defy the odds to beat Waterford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD beat Waterford 1-0 at Richmond Park, Finals, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.03 xG and Waterford 1.51 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waterford landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.71 / defence 1.43 against Waterford attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 26% | Draw 26% | Waterford 48%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual UCD win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 49%, Waterford 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — UCD 0.78 PPG, Waterford 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the UCD win broke the near-deadlock. UCD (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.