UCD 0-5 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as UCD face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derry City make the trip to UCD Bowl to face UCD in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Wednesday 6 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
UCD's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home at UCD Bowl, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Derry City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derry City's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derry City are 1.20 PPG clear of UCD in recent Premier Division fixtures (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Derry City have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to UCD's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 1–4 with Derry City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Derry City have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
UCD — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Derry City — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 44% versus Derry City 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 53% | Derry City 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.84 xG and Derry City 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.660 / defence 1.417 | Derry City attack 1.258 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.062. UCD's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 UCD games / 64 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 16% | Draw 22% | Derry City 62%. Fair-value odds: UCD 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Derry City 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: UCD 40% | Derry City 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 16% | Draw 22% | Derry City 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG UCD 0.84 / Derry City 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.660 / def 1.417 | Derry City attack 1.258 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Derry City (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Derry City xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Derry City kick off?
UCD vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 6 September 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Derry City?
UCD 0 - 5 Derry City.
Where is UCD vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Derry City part of?
UCD vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 16% chance of winning, Derry City a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both UCD and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Derry City?
Record (6 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 0 | Derry City 6W.
What form are UCD and Derry City in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from UCD's attack rating (0.66) and Derry City's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.26x) against UCD's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
16%
6.25
22%
4.60
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
UCD xG
Total xG
2.73
1.89
Derry City xG
6.25
16%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
15%
6.64
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
2%
41.50
27%
3.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are UCD and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for UCD and 1.89 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Derry City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
UCD come into this having played 64 games, going 9W 12D 43L for 0.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.81 PPG from 64 outings (32W 20D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
UCD's home form reads 6W 7D 19L across 32 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.88 points per game from 32 outings (17W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
UCD are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.47 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Derry City in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 9W 12D 43L in their last 64 games (0.61 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 20D 12L in their last 64 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.78 PPG; Derry City away: 1.88 PPG.
Have UCD or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Derry City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 7-1 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
0
Draws
8
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Derry City?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, Derry City have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Derry City 6-0 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 44%, Derry City 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (UCD) and 44% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 34%; UCD have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of UCD's recent matches and 53% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of UCD's recent games and 44% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Derry City tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Derry City in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 0-5 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat UCD 0-5 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.84 xG and Derry City 1.89 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. UCD fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Derry City outscored their 1.89 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.66 / defence 1.42 against Derry City attack 1.26 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 16% | Draw 22% | Derry City 62%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 53%, Derry City 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.61. That form edge translated into the three points. UCD (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.