St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.90 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 51% versus Shamrock Rovers 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 53% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.00 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.238 / defence 0.771 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.187 / defence 0.623. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.184. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.623 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 St Patrick's Athl. games / 46 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 33% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 37%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Shamrock Rovers 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Shamrock Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 33% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.00 / Shamrock Rovers 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.238 / def 0.771 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.187 / def 0.623 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Shamrock Rovers xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 33% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.24) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
33%
3.04
30%
3.33
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.09
1.08
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.08 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 36W 15D 21L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 48W 13D 11L from 72 games, 2.18 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St Patrick's Athl..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.97 PPG from 36 outings (22W 5D 9L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 20W 6D 10L from 36 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.67 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 15D 21L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 48W 13D 11L in their last 72 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.97 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.83 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Shamrock Rovers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 42% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.00 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.08 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.24 / defence 0.77 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.19 / defence 0.62, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 33% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 37%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 53%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.