St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Galway United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Galway United at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Galway United make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 31 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
St Patrick's Athl. have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 0.87 xG and Galway United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.980 / defence 0.958 | Galway United attack 0.919 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.008. Galway United's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 St Patrick's Athl. games / 17 Galway United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 33% | Draw 33% | Galway United 34%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Galway United 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — St Patrick's Athl.'s lower xG of 0.87 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Galway United as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galway United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 33% | Draw 33% | Galway United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 0.87 / Galway United 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.980 / def 0.958 | Galway United attack 0.919 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Galway United (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Galway United xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 31 May 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 1 Galway United.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 33% chance of winning, Galway United a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Galway United the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Galway United will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Galway United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Galway United in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. St Patrick's Athl. home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 0.98x the league average against Galway United's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Galway United's attack (0.92x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galway United Win
33%
3.04
33%
3.00
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.76
0.89
Galway United xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 15.3 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Galway United expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.89 for Galway United, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Galway United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 3 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Galway United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Galway United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Galway United?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Galway United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Galway United last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Galway United.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Galway United?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Galway United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as St Patrick's Athl. defy the odds to beat Galway United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Galway United 2-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 0.87 xG and Galway United 0.89 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Galway United attack 0.92 / defence 0.76, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 33% | Draw 33% | Galway United 34%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.