St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St Patrick's Athl. face Finn Harps.

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Analysis

Finn Harps make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Friday 22 April 2022 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

St Patrick's Athl. have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

St Patrick's Athl.'s home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Finn Harps (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Finn Harps have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for St Patrick's Athl. against 1.10 for Finn Harps. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 1 for Finn Harps and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2022, ended St Patrick's Athl. 2–0 Finn Harps — a St Patrick's Athl. win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

St Patrick's Athl. half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Finn Harps half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 56% versus Finn Harps 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Finn Harps 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 xG and Finn Harps 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.950 / defence 0.815 | Finn Harps attack 1.009 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.203. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 47 games and Finn Harps's last 47.

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 30% | Finn Harps 26%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.31 | Draw 3.30 | Finn Harps 3.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though recent form (St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 50% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 60% (last 10 away games).

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