Shelbourne 0-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shelbourne (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shelbourne face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shelbourne welcome Waterford to Tolka Park in Premier Division (matchday 14). Kick-off is Monday 5 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Shelbourne — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Shelbourne have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waterford's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Shelbourne have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Shelbourne hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Waterford and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Feb 2025, ended Shelbourne 1–0 Waterford — a Shelbourne win.
The head-to-head data gives Shelbourne an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Shelbourne trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Waterford trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 49% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 32% | Waterford 51%). Note also that Waterford surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Shelbourne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.48 xG and Waterford 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.984 / defence 0.926 | Waterford attack 0.926 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.189. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 49 games and Waterford's last 49.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Waterford 25%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.16 | Draw 3.46 | Waterford 4.05. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 50% (last 10 home games) | Waterford 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 14 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Waterford 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Shelbourne 1.48 / Waterford 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.984 / def 0.926 | Waterford attack 0.926 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Waterford xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Waterford FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Waterford kick off?
Shelbourne vs Waterford kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 5 May 2025 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Shelbourne 0 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Shelbourne vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Waterford part of?
Shelbourne vs Waterford is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 14) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 46% chance of winning, Waterford a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shelbourne and Waterford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shelbourne vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.98) and Waterford's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 49 games and Waterford's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.46
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.50
1.02
Waterford xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Waterford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.02 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 18W 12D 7L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 14W 6D 17L from 37 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Shelbourne are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 18 home games (9W 6D 3L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 6W 2D 10L from their last 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shelbourne are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs Waterford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs Waterford Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 18W 12D 7L in their last 37 games (1.78 PPG), while Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Waterford away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.83 PPG; Waterford away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Waterford in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Waterford have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Shelbourne's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
2
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Waterford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 5, Waterford have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Waterford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Shelbourne 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 50%, Waterford 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Waterford in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs Waterford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and Waterford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 39% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and Waterford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Waterford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 83% of Waterford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Shelbourne 0-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.48 xG and Waterford 1.02 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Waterford attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Waterford 25%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 32%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Waterford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.