Shelbourne 1-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs UCD encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and UCD meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 0W 6D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Shelbourne are significantly better at Tolka Park than their overall form suggests.
UCD have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, UCD have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.00 for UCD. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Shelbourne, 0 for UCD and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2022, ended 2–0 with Shelbourne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shelbourne half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
UCD half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 48% versus UCD 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 39% | UCD 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.43 xG and UCD 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.859 / defence 1.213 | UCD attack 0.642 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.123. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Shelbourne games / 33 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | UCD 23%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | UCD 4.35. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 40% | UCD 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | UCD 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Shelbourne 1.43 / UCD 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.859 / def 1.213 | UCD attack 0.642 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.87
UCD xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs UCD kick off?
Shelbourne vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 UCD.
Where is Shelbourne vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs UCD part of?
Shelbourne vs UCD is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 50% chance of winning, UCD a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shelbourne and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
Record (3 meetings): Shelbourne 2W | Draws 1 | UCD 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. UCD (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.86x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.64x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.72
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.31
0.87
UCD xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
18.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.87 for UCD, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 10D 14L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, UCD sit at 0.67 PPG from 33 outings (5W 7D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 4W 5D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, UCD have taken 0.50 points per game from 16 outings (2W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.73 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while UCD have gone 5W 7D 21L in their last 33 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or UCD away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.06 PPG; UCD away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won 0-4 on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
3
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 5, UCD have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2023, when Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and UCD?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 44%, UCD 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 50% (UCD).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 44% of games; UCD in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 31% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 50% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and UCD tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, UCD in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne and UCD share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and UCD finished level at 1-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.43 xG and UCD 0.87 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against UCD attack 0.64 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | UCD 23%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 39%, UCD 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
UCD's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. UCD (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.