Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne at Tolka Park this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dundalk have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.80 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shelbourne, 0 for Dundalk and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Shelbourne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Dundalk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | Dundalk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.28 xG and Dundalk 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.115 / defence 0.885 | Dundalk attack 0.921 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.146. Data: 42 Shelbourne games / 41 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 44% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 26%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Dundalk 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 80% | Dundalk 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 44% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Shelbourne 1.28 / Dundalk 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.115 / def 0.885 | Dundalk attack 0.921 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Dundalk xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Dundalk kick off?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Shelbourne vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Dundalk part of?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 44% chance of winning, Dundalk a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shelbourne and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Record (3 meetings): Shelbourne 1W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shelbourne's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.92x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.34
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.22
0.93
Dundalk xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.93 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 26D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.68 PPG from 72 outings (34W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.68 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 14W 13D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.25 points per game from 36 outings (12W 9D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.51 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Dundalk away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
3
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Dundalk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 31%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 31% of games; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Dundalk 2-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.28 xG and Dundalk 0.93 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Dundalk attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 44% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 26%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.40 PPG, Dundalk 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.