Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derry City at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 4 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derry City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.96 xG and Derry City 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.726 / defence 1.395 | Derry City attack 1.179 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.062. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Shelbourne games / 39 Derry City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 20% | Draw 24% | Derry City 56%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Derry City 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 20% | Draw 24% | Derry City 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Shelbourne 0.96 / Derry City 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.726 / def 1.395 | Derry City attack 1.179 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Derry City (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Derry City xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Derry City kick off?
Shelbourne vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Shelbourne vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Derry City part of?
Shelbourne vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 20% chance of winning, Derry City a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shelbourne and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Derry City away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.18x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
The sample (3/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
20%
4.89
24%
4.23
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.70
1.75
Derry City xG
4.89
20%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
4%
28.03
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.75 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Shelbourne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Shelbourne 0-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.96 xG and Derry City 1.75 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.73 / defence 1.40 against Derry City attack 1.18 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 20% | Draw 24% | Derry City 56%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.