Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 45%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shelbourne vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Monday 22 June 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shelbourne's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Shelbourne 2W, Bohemians 2W, 5D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 38% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.51 xG and Bohemians 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.984 / defence 1.147 | Bohemians attack 1.297 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.232. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Shelbourne games / 58 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 31% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 45%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 2.22. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 60% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jun 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 31% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Shelbourne 1.51 / Bohemians 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.984 / def 1.147 | Bohemians attack 1.297 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Bohemians xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 22 June 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 0 - 3 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 31% chance of winning, Bohemians a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Record (9 meetings): Shelbourne 2W | Draws 5 | Bohemians 2W.
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.98) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.30x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
31%
3.22
24%
4.11
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
3.34
1.83
Bohemians xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
5%
20.14
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.83 for Bohemians, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 32W 26D 14L from 72 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 26W 18D 28L across 72 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.33 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 17W 12D 7L from 36 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 12W 10D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 games (1.69 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Bohemians away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.75 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 56%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shelbourne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shelbourne 0-3 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.51 xG and Bohemians 1.83 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bohemians outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Bohemians attack 1.30 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 31% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 45%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 38%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.69 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.