Shamrock Rovers 3-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 9 as Shamrock Rovers welcome Waterford to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.27 xG and Waterford 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.346 / defence 1.116 | Waterford attack 0.740 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 0.716 / away 1.187. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Shamrock Rovers games / 8 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 28% | Waterford 29%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Waterford 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 28% | Waterford 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.27 / Waterford 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.346 / def 1.116 | Waterford attack 0.740 / def 1.313 | league avg home 0.716 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Waterford xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers 3 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 43% chance of winning, Waterford a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.35) and Waterford's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.52
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.25
0.98
Waterford xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.98 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 8, Waterford have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Waterford 0-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Shamrock Rovers run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 3-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.27 xG and Waterford 0.98 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waterford landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.35 / defence 1.12 against Waterford attack 0.74 / defence 1.31, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 28% | Waterford 29%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.