Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 43%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 5). Kick-off is Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Shamrock Rovers — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Shamrock Rovers at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

St Patrick's Athl.'s form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 2.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Shamrock Rovers have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Shamrock Rovers 0–3 St Patrick's Athl. — a St Patrick's Athl. win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 46% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.47 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.037 / defence 0.967 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.112 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.053. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 39 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 28%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.30 | Draw 3.47 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Shamrock Rovers 39 games, St Patrick's Athl. 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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