Shamrock Rovers 5-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shamrock Rovers face Finn Harps.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers host Finn Harps at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shamrock Rovers stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shamrock Rovers's home record at Tallaght Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Finn Harps — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Finn Harps's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Shamrock Rovers have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Finn Harps have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The historical record gives Shamrock Rovers a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 48% versus Finn Harps 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | Finn Harps 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.34 xG and Finn Harps 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.206 / defence 0.745 | Finn Harps attack 0.923 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.006. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Shamrock Rovers games / 64 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Finn Harps 9%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Finn Harps 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Finn Harps 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Finn Harps 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 45% | xG Shamrock Rovers 2.34 / Finn Harps 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.206 / def 0.745 | Finn Harps attack 0.923 / def 1.474 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Finn Harps xG
45%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Shamrock Rovers 5 - 1 Finn Harps.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 74% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps?
Record (7 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 5W | Draws 1 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shamrock Rovers's attack at 1.21x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.09
9%
10.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
3.03
0.69
Finn Harps xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.09
16%
Draw
10.81
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
10%
10.38
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
1%
112.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.69 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shamrock Rovers's recent record stands at 41W 11D 11L from 63 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Finn Harps, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 32L across 63 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Finn Harps heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shamrock Rovers have managed 23W 7D 1L from 31 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Finn Harps's away record stands at 6W 8D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.11 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 41W 11D 11L in their last 63 games (2.13 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 14W 17D 32L in their last 63 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Finn Harps away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.45 PPG; Finn Harps away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Shamrock Rovers won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 6, Finn Harps have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Shamrock Rovers 5-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 55%, Finn Harps 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Shamrock Rovers and 74% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Finn Harps in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Finn Harps?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 58% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 74% of Finn Harps's.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shamrock Rovers run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Finn Harps 5-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.34 xG and Finn Harps 0.69 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.21 / defence 0.74 against Finn Harps attack 0.92 / defence 1.47, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Finn Harps 9%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, Finn Harps 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Finn Harps's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Finn Harps (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.