Longford Town 0-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Longford Town vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Longford Town and Finn Harps meet at Bishopsgate Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.78 xG and Finn Harps 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.838 / defence 1.362 | Finn Harps attack 0.815 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 0.778 / away 1.139. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Longford Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Longford Town games / 5 Finn Harps games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 22% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 47%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Finn Harps 2.13. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 22% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Longford Town 0.78 / Finn Harps 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.838 / def 1.362 | Finn Harps attack 0.815 / def 1.203 | league avg home 0.778 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Finn Harps xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Finn Harps kick off?
Longford Town vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Longford Town 0 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is Longford Town vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Finn Harps part of?
Longford Town vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 22% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Longford Town and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Finn Harps?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Longford Town and Finn Harps in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Longford Town's attack at 0.84x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Finn Harps's attack (0.81x) against Longford Town's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
The sample (5/5 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
22%
4.47
31%
3.27
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.05
1.26
Finn Harps xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 16.3 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.26 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Finn Harps have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Finn Harps won 5-0 on 19 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Longford Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
2
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Finn Harps?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 0, Finn Harps have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 19 November 2021, when Finn Harps 5-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Finn Harps?
Finn Harps have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Longford Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Longford Town and Finn Harps drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.78 xG and Finn Harps 1.26 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Finn Harps landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.84 / defence 1.36 against Finn Harps attack 0.81 / defence 1.20, drawn from 5/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 22% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 47%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.