Longford Town 2-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 48% as Longford Town take on Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 1 as Longford Town welcome Derry City to Bishopsgate Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.71 xG and Derry City 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Derry City attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 0.508. Data: 0 Longford Town games / 0 Derry City games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 33% | Draw 48% | Derry City 19%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 3.03 | Draw 2.08 | Derry City 5.26. The draw (48%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 12% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.20. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 88% probability — total xG of 1.20 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Derry City's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 48% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 19% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.20 combined xG gives a 12% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 33% | Draw 48% | Derry City 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 12% | BTTS 23% | xG Longford Town 0.71 / Derry City 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Derry City attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Draw (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Derry City xG
23%
BTTS
37%
Over 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Derry City kick off?
Longford Town vs Derry City kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 March 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Derry City?
Longford Town 2 - 0 Derry City.
Where is Longford Town vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Derry City part of?
Longford Town vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 33% chance of winning, Derry City a 19% chance, and a 48% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Longford Town and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 12%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Longford Town and Derry City in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 31.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.8%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
48%
2.09
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
30.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Longford Town xG
Total xG
1.20
0.50
Derry City xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.09
48%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
34%
Over 1.5
2.94
66%
Under 1.5
1.52
12%
Over 2.5
8.33
88%
Under 2.5
1.14
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.35
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30.0 | 14.9 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.2 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 31.4%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Longford Town and 0.50 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Longford Town and Derry City runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Derry City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Longford Town's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Longford Town
1
Draws
2
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Derry City?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 1, Derry City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2021, when Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Longford Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Longford Town beat Derry City 2-0 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.71 xG and Derry City 0.50 xG, a combined 1.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Longford Town beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Derry City attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 33% | Draw 48% | Derry City 19%, with the draw its most likely call at 48%. The actual Longford Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 12%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 37% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.