Finn Harps 0-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 61%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this Finn Harps vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Finn Harps host UCD at Finn Park in Premier Division (matchday 15). Kick-off is Friday 13 May 2022 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Finn Harps — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Finn Harps have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 1 matches, UCD stand at 1W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour UCD — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Finn Harps's last 10 home games and UCD's last 1 games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Finn Harps have won 0, UCD 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2022, ended Finn Harps 0–0 UCD — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 2.01 xG and UCD 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.841 / defence 1.088 | UCD attack 0.731 / defence 1.824. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.209. UCD's defence rating of 1.824 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Finn Harps's projected output up. UCD's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 50 games and UCD's last 14.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 61% | Draw 22% | UCD 17%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 1.64 | Draw 4.57 | UCD 5.90. The model has a clear lean to Finn Harps (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Finn Harps's last 10 home games and UCD's last 1 games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 15 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 61% | Draw 22% | UCD 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Finn Harps 2.01 / UCD 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.841 / def 1.088 | UCD attack 0.731 / def 1.824 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
0.96
UCD xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Finn Harps vs UCD FAQs
What time does Finn Harps vs UCD kick off?
Finn Harps vs UCD kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 13 May 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs UCD?
Finn Harps 0 - 1 UCD.
Where is Finn Harps vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs UCD part of?
Finn Harps vs UCD is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 15) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 61% chance of winning, UCD a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Finn Harps and UCD will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Finn Harps vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (0.84) and UCD's defence rating (1.82), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, UCD's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Finn Harps's last 50 games and UCD's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.57
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.97
0.96
UCD xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
2%
43.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Finn Harps vs UCD Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Finn Harps and 0.96 for UCD, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Finn Harps's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five.
UCD, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 3.00 PPG, UCD on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 5.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Finn Harps's scoring rate against UCD's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; UCD in 100%.
Defensively: Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Early Season
UCD
Early Season
Finn Harps (Home) vs UCD (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Finn Harps
Early Season
UCD
Early Season
❓ Finn Harps vs UCD Form FAQs
What form are Finn Harps and UCD in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Finn Harps or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, UCD in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from February 2022. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 28 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
UCD have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Finn Harps's record when hosting UCD specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Finn Harps
1
Draws
3
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Finn Harps vs UCD H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and UCD?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Finn Harps have won 0, UCD have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and UCD last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2022: Finn Harps 1-3 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and UCD?
UCD have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Finn Harps vs UCD Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Finn Harps and UCD matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 100% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Finn Harps and UCD matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Finn Harps's matches and 100% of UCD's.
Do Finn Harps and UCD matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 100% of UCD's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as UCD defy the odds to beat Finn Harps 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD beat Finn Harps 0-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 2.01 xG and UCD 0.96 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Finn Harps fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against UCD attack 0.73 / defence 1.82, drawn from 50/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 61% | Draw 22% | UCD 17%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a UCD win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 100%, UCD 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 3.00 PPG, UCD 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the UCD win broke the near-deadlock. Finn Harps managed 0 against a 5.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. UCD managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.