Finn Harps 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dundalk at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Dundalk travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2021, 17:45 UTC.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Finn Harps, 0 for Dundalk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Mar 2021, ended 2–1 with Finn Harps winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.91 xG and Dundalk 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.869 / defence 1.201 | Dundalk attack 0.955 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 0.797 / away 1.314. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Finn Harps's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Finn Harps games / 10 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 21% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 50%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Dundalk 2.00. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 21% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Finn Harps 0.91 / Dundalk 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.869 / def 1.201 | Dundalk attack 0.955 / def 1.313 | league avg home 0.797 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Dundalk xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Dundalk kick off?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 14 May 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Finn Harps 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Finn Harps vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Dundalk part of?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 21% chance of winning, Dundalk a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Finn Harps and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Record (1 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 0 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Finn Harps and Dundalk in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.87x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
21%
4.67
29%
3.48
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.42
1.51
Dundalk xG
4.67
21%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
5%
21.06
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.51 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dundalk have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Finn Harps and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps and Dundalk finished level at 1-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.91 xG and Dundalk 1.51 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Dundalk attack 0.95 / defence 1.31, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 21% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 50%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.