Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dundalk face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Monday 14 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
St Patrick's Athl. have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Dundalk's 2 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that St Patrick's Athl. have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 76% versus St Patrick's Athl. 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 62% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.05 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.904 / defence 1.200 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.937 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.306. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Dundalk games / 65 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 23% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 43%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 90% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 14 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 23% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Dundalk 1.05 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.904 / def 1.200 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.937 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.47
St Patrick's Athl. xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Monday 14 September 2026 at Oriel Park.
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 23% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (10 meetings): Dundalk 2W | Draws 3 | St Patrick's Athl. 5W.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.90x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
23%
4.30
34%
2.97
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.52
1.47
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.30
23%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.47 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dundalk come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 10D 9L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.72 PPG from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.38 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dundalk's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.43 points per game from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dundalk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.55 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 10W 10D 9L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 14W 8D 7L in their last 29 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Dundalk's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.50 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Dundalk or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 71%, St Patrick's Athl. 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 29% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Dundalk's games and 43% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dundalk's recent games and 29% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.