Dundalk 5-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 March 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 54% versus St Patrick's Athl. 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.48 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.034 / defence 0.986 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.123 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.033. Data: 38 Dundalk games / 38 St Patrick's Athl. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 41% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 41% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Dundalk 1.48 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.034 / def 0.986 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.123 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.14
St Patrick's Athl. xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk 5 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 41% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.03x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
41%
2.43
33%
3.01
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.62
1.14
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.14 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dundalk come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 21D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (36W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.54 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dundalk's home form reads 21W 7D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.44 points per game from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dundalk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.57 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 15D 21L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Dundalk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.94 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Dundalk or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, St Patrick's Athl. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dundalk's games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 5-0 hammering of St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat St Patrick's Athl. 5-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.48 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.14 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.12 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 41% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.54 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.